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Ortiz vs. Liddel - Lets break it Down
by guichoke
TITO ORTIZ
Win Wes Albritton TKO (Strikes)
Loss Guy Mezger Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Win Jeremy Screeton Submission (Strikes)
Win Jerry Bohlander TKO (Strikes)
Win Guy Mezger TKO (Strikes)
Loss Frank Shamrock Submission (Strikes)
Win Wanderlei Silva Decision UFC 25
Win Yuki Kondo Submission (Neck Crank/Choke)
Win Evan Tanner KO (Slam)
Win Elvis Sinosic TKO (Cut)
Win Vladimir Matyushenko Decision (Unanimous)
Win Ken Shamrock Submission (Fatigue)
Loss Randy Couture Decision (Unanimous)
CHUCK LIDDEL
Win Noe Hernandez Decision
Win Jose Landi-Jons Decision
Loss Jeremy Horn Submission (Choke)
Win Paul Jones TKO (Strikes)
Win Steve Heath KO (Kick to the Head)
Win Jeff Monson Decision
Win Kevin Randleman KO (Punches)
Win Guy Mezger KO (Punch)
Win Murilo Bustamante Decision
Win Amar Suloev Decision
Win Vitor Belfort Decision
Win Renato Sobral KO (Head Kick)
Loss Randy Couture TKO(Punches)
Win Alistair Overeem KO (Strikes)
Loss Quinton Jackson TKO (Strikes)
Okay so these are two very experienced guys, who have both faced quality opposition and have been sitting in the top 5 in their weight division for a long time. This fight is particularly interesting due to the feud, and the fact that Tito and Chuck used to train together, so are very aware of each other strengths and weaknesses.
Factors that will come into play that I will highlight below are: Wresting Ability (clinch and take downs/defense), Striking, Chin, Submissions, Heart, Strength and Psychology.
WRESTLING
Ok so everyone is clearly going to say Tito - but is he?
Will it be another scenario such as couture out-striking Liddel?
I believe that the only person to have convincingly out-wrestle chuck is Randy Couture. The same thing also applies to Tito. Chuck has very underrated wrestling ability. His renouned take down defense is clear evidence of a very capable wrestler. Chuck ONLY uses this skill to avoid take downs, whereas tito uses his wrestling ability to take down, and ground n pound.
Chuck's last two loses came from GnP, which is tito's specialty. However Randy Couture and Quinton Jackson where only able to enforce due to the fact that they out-struck Chuck, and had him very flustered on his feet. This allowed Randy and Quinton not only to implement the take downs, but to control chuck on the ground as he was gassed and hurt.
Can Tito take Chuck down? Yes. Can Tito damage Chuck to the extent that he can keep him there? Debatable.
STRIKING
Chuck is a far more seasoned striker than tito, and had proven KO power. However in his last two fights he has been out struck. The question is, have we been overrating chucks striking? He was made to look extremely sloppy by both randy and rampage - is this something that Ortiz too can expose? I believe it is all a matter of Tito having the self confidence to stand up with chuck. Tito trains with some fantastic boxers, but he never seems to use it. Why didn't he box with randy? When tito started banging with Ken Shamrock right at the start of the fight at UFC 40 I though he looked great. In fact I thought it might be over then and there. Here was a glimpse of tito's striking potential. Ken managed to tag him, which certainly affected tito's self belief in that particular fight, and so he resorted to his wrestling.
When Tito starts to bang, he is formidable, and I believe that if he has the self belief to box with Chuck - he will give himself a much better chance. You cant just go through a fight trying not to lose - (i.e.: in this case, trying to avoid the KO) If Tito goes for it, I think he will surprise a lot of us, especially Chuck.
It has to be said that chuck is 100% capable of tagging Tito, and I suspect this will be in Tito's head - but I will come to that later.
CHIN
Ok there's a lot of people who doubt tito's chin....I don't. True he's no Nog or Couture - but that's not a fair comparison - they have freaky freaky strong chins. Ok Tito got tagged by Wanderlei silva and had to regroup. So? He still won the fight, and stop me if I’m wrong but Wanderlei hits like an absolute mule (KO'd Kazushi Sakuraba and Quinto Jackson blah blah blah) Tito took a shot right on the chin - and wasn't knocked out or even down. Same applies to Ken Shamrocks' tag also. Is Tito's chin granite - no? But it certainly isn't glass.
Chuck’s however is granite - he is very unlikely to get KO'd by Tito, and he knows it - big advantage to Chuck.
SUBMISSIONS
I will be very surprised if this is a factor. Neither have good subs - tito has a better guard, but probably wont need to use it, and chuck never spends long in the guard, he either gets passed or stands up. Has reasonable sweeps, but I doubt he could sweep Tito, who has excellent base and positioning.
HEART
People question Tito’s heart as well as his chin, and I don't know why. Ok - he submitted to Frank Shamrock 5 years ago...........and? He was fucked, it was submit or wait till he got KO'd - what's the point. He has since shown great determination against Wanderlei Silva, and Vladimere Matuchenko (with a cracked ankle as well) And against Randy Couture. What he may lack is the ability to regroup when things are going wrong for him. He clearly wasn't winning the wrestling match with Randy - maybe someone with bigger balls would have just said "fuck it" and gone for broke trying for the KO. Tito’s biggest problem is he plays it too safe, he needs to learn to learn to risk more. As his title is not on the line this time, we may see a different attitude.
Chuck has proved repeatedly that he is a complete warrior - they guy just wont quit. His three loses are referee stoppages because he's too dam crazy to know when he's beat, and lets not forget letting himself get choked unconscious by Jeremy Horn rather than tapping......respect!
STRENGTH
Ok a lot of people mistake strength for technique. Is randy physically stronger than tito....no. But he appeared to be because of his superior wrestling. Ok - Tito is stronger, no debate there, but chuck has shown that he can handle himself against big strong wrestlers. Kevin Randleman is a good example. This then I think becomes a rather irrelevant point since it is so closely tied to the points I made about wrestling earlier. The strength difference isn't going to be big enough to be much of a factor in this fight. I recon Tito can bench more though!
PSYCHOLOGY
I talked a lot about Tito playing it safe. This attitude contributed to his loss to randy. I'm not saying the result would be different has he thrown caution to the wind, but it may well have made for a more dignified defeat. Both fighters have a huge amount at stake. They are both coming off loses, they are both looking for title shots, and they are both relative veterans of the sport now.
Chucks one enormous advantage in this fight is psychological. He is in Tito's head. Tito knows that chuck is capable of knocking him out, and if this happens then his career will move 5 paces back. With this in mind, tito may walk into this fight desperately looking for the take downs. I hope not, because this is bread and butter to chuck, and every wrestler that has fought chuck with this attitude has been KO'd. Tito needs to take a leaf out of Randy's book, but my feeling is that he wont. Psychological advantage goes to Chuck - and its a big one!
CONCLUSION
I want with all my heart for tito to just go for it, stand up with chuck, and try to copy the couture method so to speak. However my feeling is this wont happen, and despite all his extra boxing training, we will probably see the same tito we have always seen. This will result in one of two out comes.
1. Snooze fest - Tito constantly clinching against the fence, take downs and GnP ending in a Ortiz decision victory.
2. Similar scenario to the Kevein Randleman fight, though very unlikely to be so early. Tito gets tagged while looking to shoot or clinch - end of fight.
Good luck to both competitors - I hope they both give the best possible account of themselves.
* Article by guichoke.
* Back to Issue #7 Frontpage
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